Alberta electricity & gas market update – March 2026

Electricity market overview

March’s average AESO spot price rose 50.4% MoM, driven by seasonal demand recovery and elevated energy costs from geopolitical disruptions, while remaining down 3.1% YoY amid continued structural correction from increased generation capacity across the province.

Average AESO Pool Price: $33.68/MWh

Monthly Price Range

• Peak hourly price: $948.63/MWh, recorded on March 26th
• Minimum hourly price: $0.00MWh
• Demand Highlights: Monthly peak demand at  11,753 MW

Key drivers of market volatility

• Global energy shock: The Iran war and closure of the Strait of Hormuz triggered the largest oil supply disruption in history; Brent crude surged past nearly $120/bbl. Global natural gas prices surged amid supply disruptions, with elevated energy costs expected to ripple through Alberta’s economy
• Renewable investment retreat: ATCO declared a $408M writedown on Alberta wind/solar assets, citing provincial policy changes. The Pembina Institute reports a 93% decline in new capacity installations since 2022, with the project pipeline falling to ~60 in March 2026.
• Market restructuring (REM): The AESO’s Restructured Energy Market rules received ministerial approval in March, with a market participant readiness kick-off held March 24. The transition introduces a day-ahead market and co-optimization — a major shift from Alberta’s real-time-only design.

Natural gas (AECO) market overview

Average AECO Price: $1.98/GJ

March’s averaged AECO price down 12.3% MoM and down 18.9% YoY, and remain sensitive to broader market conditions and infrastructure‑driven demand, with longer‑term expectations pointing to improving fundamentals.

Forward curve indicators

• ~$3.20/GJ – Winter 2027 Peak Futures
• ~$3.35/GJ – Winter 2028 Peak Futures
• ~$3.35/GJ – Winter 2029 Peak Futures

Market insights & trends

• Western Canadian oversupply: Record-level WCSB production (~19 Bcf/d) continues to outpace demand growth, capping regional prices despite rising LNG feed gas needs.
• LNG export ramp-up: LNG Canada is ramping toward 2 Bcf/d of feed gas demand, with Cedar LNG and Woodfibre LNG adding a combined ~0.7 Bcf/d by 2028.
• Geopolitical Tailwinds: Damage to Qatar’s Ras Laffan facility (3–5 year repair timeline) opens a significant window for Canadian LNG to capture global market share, particularly in Asia.

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