Alberta electricity & gas market update – July 2026

Electricity market overview

Average AESO Pool Price: ¢ 3.13/kWh

July’s average AESO pool price presents a 80% increase MoM from June’s settle of ¢ 1.74/kWh, and a 0.64% increase YoY from July 2025’s settle of ¢ 3.11/kWh.

Key drivers of market volatility

• Reduced energy imports: June 2026 saw imports help meet demand and lower prices. July’s heat wave likely reduced available imports as neighbors faced their own demand pressures. This forced Alberta to rely on costlier local thermal generation.
• Extreme weather and peak demand: July 2026 saw warm temperatures above seasonal averages. Peak demand hit 12,390 MW, up 1,127 MW from June’s 11,263 MW.
• Renewable energy intermittency: Wind and solar intermittency created major price swings. June saw high renewable output drive prices to 1.74¢/kWh. July’s lower renewable generation combined with high demand caused extreme volatility.

Natural gas (AECO) market overview

Average AECO Price: $1.64/GJ

July 2026 AECO gas prices are down 0.61% MoM and up 38% YoY. The slight monthly decline reflects stable production levels and robust storage injections across North America. Despite the decrease from June, prices remain elevated compared to last year due to sustained strong demand and anticipated export facility operations. Fall prices are expected to be influenced by the transition to heating season and preparation for winter supply needs.

Forward curve indicators

• ~$1.76/GJ – 2027 Futures
• ~$2.18/GJ – 2028 Futures
• ~$2.12/GJ – 2029 Futures

Market insights & trends

• LNG Canada takes another step toward phase 2 FID in First Nations deal: LNG Canada’s backers have reached an agreement to give a group of First Nations neighboring the export facility in British Columbia an opportunity to invest up to $1 billion in part of its second phase.
• Shell moves closer to ARC deal as LNG Canada momentum builds: The $16.4 billion transaction received 99.54% of votes cast in favor of the deal. Shell would assume assets across northeast British Columbia and northwest Alberta.
• Anti-oil and gas activists are making Canadian LNG, not pipelines, their next major target: Environmental groups are targeting Canadian LNG export terminals to block access to global markets, suppressing upstream natural gas expansion and preventing long-term operational lock-in.

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