Alberta electricity & gas market update – February 2026

Electricity market overview

February’s average AESO spot price fell 43% MoM and 60% YoY, a decline likely supported by unseasonably warm conditions across Alberta in early February.

Average AESO Pool Price: $22.39/MWh

Monthly Price Range

• Peak hourly price: $827.67/MWh, recorded on February 28th
• Minimum hourly price: $0.00MWh
• Demand Highlights: Monthly peak demand at 12,404 MW

Key drivers of market volatility

• Renewable slowdown: Project pipeline fell from 179 (Mar 2023) to  ~60 (Mar 2026), with 41 pre‑moratorium, indicating limited new additions.
• Institutional demand: TransAlta–Brookfield–CPP MOU signals rising data‑centre load and potential incremental demand (on‑grid/off‑grid).
• Global volatility: Persian Gulf tensions are lifting energy‑market volatility; sustained higher oil prices could help exports but weigh on the economy if prolonged.

Natural gas (AECO) market overview

Average AECO Price: $2.26/GJ

AECO averaged $2.26/GJ this month, down 18% MoM and up 6% YoY, and remain sensitive to broader market conditions and infrastructure‑driven demand, with longer‑term expectations pointing to improving fundamentals.

Forward curve indicators

• ~$3.20/GJ – Winter 2027 Peak Futures
• ~$3.35/GJ – Winter 2028 Peak Futures
• ~$3.35/GJ – Winter 2029 Peak Futures

Market insights & trends

• LNG Canada exports: 50th cargo shipped February 23, 2026. Two trains are currently operational for LNG Canada.
• Export capacity impact: CER notes exports and LNG growth are reshaping market dynamics and demand outlook.

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